Election 2020: A landslide in waiting?

Since I established Dovetail, I’ve indulged my political geekery and devoted the odd blog to each election, drawing on my own unsophisticated poll of polls. I have to say it’s been a challenging electoral cycle for poll-watchers. In the last election cycle, I recorded 75 polls that were published by media outlets or made publicly available by a polling company, and which throughout the period gave regular feedback to the public on party following. Since the 2017 election, I’ve only recorded 45 public polls; TVNZ and Newshub were commissioning fewer, and Roy Morgan disappeared for the better part of two years.

In the relative dearth of public polls we were variously treated by party internal polling, often released selectively when they favoured the differing fortunes mainly of National or Labour, or leaked amidst internal dissent (predominantly within National from my recollection). I would argue that an important function of our fourth estate is to commission scientifically robust party polls to balance out the selectively released surveys, as the latter can often focus on key points of tension or controversy, but miss the wider trends taking place.

So it is something of a relief that in 2020, Colmar Brunton for TVNZ, Reid Research for Newshub, and Roy Morgan all returned to regular reporting. The story they tell is a strong surge for the Labour Party since New Zealand emerged from lockdown, with at one stage a near 30-point gap between the two parties. Until COVID-19 arrived, Labour and National were fairly closely matched, with pole positions fluctuating. However, the performance of the coalition government in pursuing an elimination strategy for COVID, combined with the communication and leadership of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, has rewarded Labour with a commanding lead in the polls.

As the poll of polls below shows, since the first lockdown ended, Labour has held a strong lead, and despite some narrowing, still hold a 16-point lead over National. And as National’s fortunes have slipped, many voters have shifted allegiance to ACT who are now well above the 5% threshold to enter parliament.

The Green Party, at 8%, are at a similar level to ACT, but as many have pointed out, their poll performance is often not matched by the election results and their supporters will be looking anxiously at the returns on October 17. The fortunes of New Zealand First have declined steadily, and at just 3% will struggle to return to parliament on current polling.

Worth noting is that the current coalition of Labour, New Zealand First and the Greens have consistently held a polling lead over opposition parties over the past three years. No matter how well National has polled on its own, the party has never had the strength in alliances with other parties to ever appear in a position to govern.

On current polling, only four parties will make it into the next parliament, with Labour able to govern alone with 61 seats in a 120-seat parliament, the Greens with 10 seats, and National and ACT well short of any ability to shape legislation in the way that they have in the current term. For National, the decline will be a major loss, down from 56 seats currently to just 39.

If these figures hold, it will be a remarkable victory for the Labour Party, and one that is to a substantial degree borne out of the extraordinary circumstances of a global pandemic, and the government’s widely-praised response. Since the mixed member proportional system (MMP) was introduced in 1996, no party has been able to govern on their own, yet Labour appear poised to do just that.

There may still be some surprises in store. The Māori Party have in the past shone in the Māori seats, well ahead of their nationwide polling, and some polling suggests Tāmaki Makaurau and Waiariki could well be in play. New Zealand First appears to be having a small late surge, but are still well below the 5% threshold.

We psephologists (those who follow elections) would be wise to remember the advice of Moira Rose from the television series Schitt’s Creek – “Let’s not count our poultry before it’s incubated.” I have a vivid memory of election night in 1993, a time when all the polls were pointing to an emphatic victory for National, but they only just scraped in. The then Prime Minister Jim Bolger uttered the prosaic words “Bugger the polls.” It’s this maxim that political leaders on the right will be clinging to this year. The left in the meantime will be stocking up on popcorn for a night glued to the TV sets.

Data are drawn from a poll of polls of the last three publicly available polls in New Zealand: One News-Colmar Brunton, Newshub-Reid Research, and Roy Morgan. In 2020 the figures averaged the three most recent polls to appear, and for 2017-2019 these were for the two most recent polls, owing to fewer surveys being commissioned.